Is Russia an EU alternative for Turkey?
Discussions on Turkey's alternatives to European Union membership have so far widely seen as unrealistic, redundant or marginal efforts. In the past couple of years several Turkish political and military figures, and intellectuals, have suggested giving up the EU membership process and introducing a deeper rapprochement with Russia, China and even Iran towards a regional union. However they merely emerged as emotional responses to what was perceived as the EU's unfair and hostile policies towards Turkey and failed to come up with a convincing detailed alternative strategy.
Despite such a background, recent developments in Turkish foreign policy re-fuel these discussions and necessitate a closer look particularly at Turkish-Russian relations. Two concrete trends deserve particular attention here: First of all, the great loss of confidence among Turkish decision-makers as well as the public on the future of the EU accession talks, largely due to the Cyprus stalemate and new hurdles introduced to the membership process. Secondly, parallel to that we are witnessing much more close political and security dialogue, and deepening of economic ties between Ankara and Moscow.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin five times last year, and President Ahmet Necdet Sezer is paying an official visit to Moscow this week. Not to mention dozens of other regular visits between high-level officials of the two countries. Under these conditions, some Turkish analysts started to argue that Turkey should immediately make up its mind, give up an open-ended EU process and work towards other alternatives, mainly deepening relations with the Russia.
However, according to Russian Ambassador to Turkey Petr Vladimirovic Stegniy, for today Turkey's EU process is not something Moscow views as harmful for development of Turkish-Russian relations.
"In principle we look our cooperation with the EU and your cooperation with the EU as complementary," Stegniy told the TNA in an interview to be published this week. The Russian ambassador says Moscow is not aspiring to become an EU member for obvious reasons, but they have a positive view of Turkey's EU process.
"This is because first of all Turkey wants it," he said. "Secondly, we have a more predictable neighbor who is playing with European standards. And if we launch an adaptation process in time, we can avoid any possible implication to our bilateral relations."
This is Moscow's "politically correct" look at the current Turkish-EU relations, if Turkey will continue its desire for EU membership process. However, it is obvious already from now that Turkey's EU process will enter into a much more difficult period in the coming months, mainly due to the Cyprus problem and also increasing Turkey-skepticism in countries like Austria and France. On a larger scale, Europe is going through deeper economic and political problems and an identity question, which further complicates Turkey's EU process.
On the other hand, Russia is showing more assertive signs in terms of the economy, stronger involvement in regional and global problems and also desire for a closer cooperation with Turkey. Although we had in the past mere rhetoric on the opportunities for closer ties of Turkey and Russia, today we have more practical concrete cooperation mainly in economics and trade, but not limited to that, and also increasingly including politics and security.
Under these conditions, one could say that the glass is half empty and half full in both Turkey's difficult EU process and its promising relations with the Russia. They are still developing and will be shaped by significant decisions in the coming months and developments in the coming years.
It would be wrong to derive a simple and quick conclusion for the time being that the Russia is becoming an alternative to the EU for Turkey. But one thing is clear: If the EU loses Turkey, Russia is waiting to become Turkey's main partner.
Despite such a background, recent developments in Turkish foreign policy re-fuel these discussions and necessitate a closer look particularly at Turkish-Russian relations. Two concrete trends deserve particular attention here: First of all, the great loss of confidence among Turkish decision-makers as well as the public on the future of the EU accession talks, largely due to the Cyprus stalemate and new hurdles introduced to the membership process. Secondly, parallel to that we are witnessing much more close political and security dialogue, and deepening of economic ties between Ankara and Moscow.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin five times last year, and President Ahmet Necdet Sezer is paying an official visit to Moscow this week. Not to mention dozens of other regular visits between high-level officials of the two countries. Under these conditions, some Turkish analysts started to argue that Turkey should immediately make up its mind, give up an open-ended EU process and work towards other alternatives, mainly deepening relations with the Russia.
However, according to Russian Ambassador to Turkey Petr Vladimirovic Stegniy, for today Turkey's EU process is not something Moscow views as harmful for development of Turkish-Russian relations.
"In principle we look our cooperation with the EU and your cooperation with the EU as complementary," Stegniy told the TNA in an interview to be published this week. The Russian ambassador says Moscow is not aspiring to become an EU member for obvious reasons, but they have a positive view of Turkey's EU process.
"This is because first of all Turkey wants it," he said. "Secondly, we have a more predictable neighbor who is playing with European standards. And if we launch an adaptation process in time, we can avoid any possible implication to our bilateral relations."
This is Moscow's "politically correct" look at the current Turkish-EU relations, if Turkey will continue its desire for EU membership process. However, it is obvious already from now that Turkey's EU process will enter into a much more difficult period in the coming months, mainly due to the Cyprus problem and also increasing Turkey-skepticism in countries like Austria and France. On a larger scale, Europe is going through deeper economic and political problems and an identity question, which further complicates Turkey's EU process.
On the other hand, Russia is showing more assertive signs in terms of the economy, stronger involvement in regional and global problems and also desire for a closer cooperation with Turkey. Although we had in the past mere rhetoric on the opportunities for closer ties of Turkey and Russia, today we have more practical concrete cooperation mainly in economics and trade, but not limited to that, and also increasingly including politics and security.
Under these conditions, one could say that the glass is half empty and half full in both Turkey's difficult EU process and its promising relations with the Russia. They are still developing and will be shaped by significant decisions in the coming months and developments in the coming years.
It would be wrong to derive a simple and quick conclusion for the time being that the Russia is becoming an alternative to the EU for Turkey. But one thing is clear: If the EU loses Turkey, Russia is waiting to become Turkey's main partner.
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