National Maturity and Putin's State-of-the-Nation Address
National Maturity and Putin's State-of-the-Nation Address
he recent state-of-the-nation speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined several major accomplishments and obstacles that have been either achieved or overcome since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. His speech delineated specific problems emblematic of a state that is maturing into a new form, however close or distant some critics may think Russia is to a neo-Soviet Union. Fifteen years from 1991, Russia today is slowly growing into its newly-found statehood. The goals and wishes outlined by Putin point not just to the present day reality of the Russian Federation, but to the next five years that will begin to shape the country, the former Soviet space and the larger Eurasian and global geopolitical climate.
Looking back at history -- and delineating certain trends that have been true of past regimes, states and national developments -- it is possible to point out that a state can take decades to mature into its full political, economic and military potential. There are plenty of examples when states take longer or shorter periods of time to reach this maturity. There is no doubt that the Kremlin sees itself as a rising power. The United States, together with the world at large, either grudgingly or openly accepts this fact. Presently, Russia is 15 years past the fall of the Soviet Union. It can boast of a sizeable foreign currency reserve, thanks to the rising cost of energy and increasing global demand, and a general order throughout the country that prevailed once Putin assumed power. Still, major elements are still taking shape that will allow Russia to fully grow into its new role.
New Generation, New Opportunities, New Approach
The most important element needed for Russia to be transformed is generational change. Those born in the early to mid-1980s are only now beginning to emerge fully into Russia's political, economic and military establishment. This generation has no real memory of the Soviet Union, and can consciously comprehend only the enormous changes that have taken place since 1991 -- the pitfalls of the Russian-style market economy, the collapse of the social net, the civil and secessionist wars at Russia's periphery -- and at the same time educational and economic opportunities that have opened to this young population.
Tenths of thousands of young men and women have been educated in the West, either in the United States or Western Europe, from 1991 until today. While many chose to stay in the West and work, others have returned, bringing their own blend of Western ideals to the ready mix of Russian economic and social principles. Many in power today are in their mid to late 40s, a younger generation that is gradually replacing those in their 60s at key government posts; these functionaries retain a good institutional memory of the Soviet Union and its domestic and international policies. Their decision-making, therefore, is a blend of what they consider an inevitable trend away from rigid Soviet structures -- exemplified by the spread of liberal democratic and market economic ideals in the former Soviet sphere -- and their own memory and perhaps wish for the ideals of the Soviet Union.
This is embodied by the constant struggle at the top echelons of power between those keen on recreating a strong central and controlling role for Russia in the post-Soviet space, and those who seek to change Russia along principles that closely resemble Western values. While many critics and analysts consider the latter category all but done for, the fate of Russia can yet be shaped by those who will begin to ascend in power within five or six years.
The younger generation has much in common with other youth around the world now in their early 20s. In North America, Western and Eastern Europe, in China, India and other countries of Southeast Asia, this new generation has begun to mature in the age of the Internet, wider access and familiarity with high-technology exemplified by computer and personal electronics, the spread of democratic principles and values, general familiarity with the market economy and its global presence and greater educational choices.
In Russia, this new generation wins international computer and IT competitions and takes one of the leading roles in the new high-tech economy. In China, according to a recent story in U.S. News and World Report, hundreds of millions of "Chuppies" -- Chinese young urban professionals -- are having a huge effect on global consumption and trade practices. In India, this young, English-speaking population has forged one of the most powerful high-tech economies in the world. In the United States, this new generation has helped build the Internet and today's high-tech industry, while living with the prevalence of democratic, capitalist, market-oriented ideals over command-economies and closed political regimes.
That is why Putin concentrated on specific pillars that he hopes will underpin the rise and maturity of Russia in the next several decades: the family and the military. While lamenting the negative population growth trends in the country, he offered financial incentives to families to have more than one child. Young families where both spouses are in their early 20s is commonplace in the Russian Federation, and many reasons they choose to have only one child -- or no child at all -- are financial and economic. This young generation -- the future of Russia if all trends prevalent today continue for the next several decades -- is only now maturing when it comes to various opportunities that have opened up to them since 1991. In the next five years, this generation will begin to reap the benefits -- or pitfalls -- of recent economic and social policies put in action by Putin, and will become more confident in their own economic, social and political standing.
Likewise, in the next five years the Russian military will begin to draft young men who have no connection or memory of Soviet military practices. Much of the current hazing and deadly abuse in the Russian military ranks is leftover from the Soviet days, when, in the 1970s, the military began to disintegrate and break down from within together with the rest of the country. Today's men drafted into the army are commanded and administered by those with full memory of Soviet military practices.
While many of these leaders will still be in power around 2010-2011, the military will have to adapt and change to the next generation of men who grew up in an era of greater choice, opportunity (however limited) and a renewed sense of personal respect. These young men will also have grown up in an era when no overriding political ideology guided every aspect of life, including military service. Because no such ideology exists, Russian military planners will have to switch to a professional military consisting of people guided by pragmatic choices and the sense of individual empowerment. This is the general sense of the U.S. military that Russians are trying to emulate, and Putin is keenly aware that a strong professional military not ruled by a rigid political philosophy is key to his state's future successes in the international arena.
Examples of Maturity of New States and New State Ideals
The general rule of 20 years allocated for a state's maturity is just one of the time periods that can be traced throughout history. Some states mature faster and others slower. Russia's own history is replete with such examples. The most notable one is the accession of the young energetic, Western-oriented Czar Peter the Great to the Russian throne in the late 1680s. He used physical force and intimidation -- as well as persuasion -- to turn his country from a sleeping giant into a major world power. The introduction of Western ideas of economy, military and statehood -- combined with the maturing of the generation of Russians capable of implementing these ideals -- resulted in Russian military victories over major powers of the day and the emergence in the 1700s of the Russian Empire that would last three centuries as one of the world's most preeminent powers.
Likewise, in 1917, following the revolution, Russia was in the midst of political, military and economic turmoil, soon to disintegrate into the five-year-long civil war. By the late 1930s, however, on the eve of the Second World War, the weak Russian Empire morphed into the Soviet Union, a major world power. By that time, an entire generation grew up with the ideals and beliefs of communism and socialism, and was implanting these ideals across the country.
By the same token, in the Russian Empire of the 1890s, new concepts and principles of Marxism, revolution and social change took hold among its young generation of students and the middle class. Within 20 years, this generation matured enough to implement these principles and to overthrow the Czarist regime, setting in motion a chain of events that culminated in the 1917 revolution and the subsequent disintegration of the country. In the mid 1970s, the ideals of human rights, social justice and personal freedom began to permeate the Soviet population following the signing of the Helsinki Declaration. These ideas brewed in secret among young academics, politicians, artists and writers, and by the early 1990s they had sufficient strength and numbers to facilitate the break-up of the Soviet Union.
Other powers also took around 20 years to reach a point where they could be considered mature powers. In 1871, the German Empire staked its claim to European greatness by unifying different German principalities and militarily humbling France, a preeminent power of the day. By the 1890s, it became clear that Germany was a major global contender, throwing a major challenge to Great Britain, the world's remaining superpower.
By the same token, a humbled Germany of 1918 was transformed into a superpower capable of taking on the world in 1939, as it became Nazi Germany with its powerful and disciplined military and economy. Communist China started off on the path of major economic change in 1979. By the year 2000, China was enjoying unprecedented economic growth, and today is considered the next great power and even a possible challenge to the United States. India started off on its reform path in the mid to late 1980s, and today it is emerging as another potential superpower and a major global economic powerhouse. Those in power in the 1970s and 1980s led China and India on the path toward economic and social change, so that today a new generation of their fellow countrymen can enjoy the life of relative prosperity and opportunity.
Conclusion
Putin's speech to Russia is important because it was an appeal to the young and upcoming generation who has little or no memory of the Soviet Union. Russia is maturing as the new power not just in terms of economy -- for its economy is still relatively small when compared to many other developed and developing countries -- but as the state with a unique blend of Western economic/political principles and a distinctly Russian/post-Soviet approach to them. Soon, the young Russian generation will make the next step from the largely academic life to the professional one, and will become a vocal and powerful voice in Russia's economy, politics and society. Twenty years since the start of the changes that led to the demise of the Soviet Union, this new generation will attempt to forge a new identity and direction for the Russian Federation.
Report Drafted By:
Alex Norman
he recent state-of-the-nation speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined several major accomplishments and obstacles that have been either achieved or overcome since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. His speech delineated specific problems emblematic of a state that is maturing into a new form, however close or distant some critics may think Russia is to a neo-Soviet Union. Fifteen years from 1991, Russia today is slowly growing into its newly-found statehood. The goals and wishes outlined by Putin point not just to the present day reality of the Russian Federation, but to the next five years that will begin to shape the country, the former Soviet space and the larger Eurasian and global geopolitical climate.
Looking back at history -- and delineating certain trends that have been true of past regimes, states and national developments -- it is possible to point out that a state can take decades to mature into its full political, economic and military potential. There are plenty of examples when states take longer or shorter periods of time to reach this maturity. There is no doubt that the Kremlin sees itself as a rising power. The United States, together with the world at large, either grudgingly or openly accepts this fact. Presently, Russia is 15 years past the fall of the Soviet Union. It can boast of a sizeable foreign currency reserve, thanks to the rising cost of energy and increasing global demand, and a general order throughout the country that prevailed once Putin assumed power. Still, major elements are still taking shape that will allow Russia to fully grow into its new role.
New Generation, New Opportunities, New Approach
The most important element needed for Russia to be transformed is generational change. Those born in the early to mid-1980s are only now beginning to emerge fully into Russia's political, economic and military establishment. This generation has no real memory of the Soviet Union, and can consciously comprehend only the enormous changes that have taken place since 1991 -- the pitfalls of the Russian-style market economy, the collapse of the social net, the civil and secessionist wars at Russia's periphery -- and at the same time educational and economic opportunities that have opened to this young population.
Tenths of thousands of young men and women have been educated in the West, either in the United States or Western Europe, from 1991 until today. While many chose to stay in the West and work, others have returned, bringing their own blend of Western ideals to the ready mix of Russian economic and social principles. Many in power today are in their mid to late 40s, a younger generation that is gradually replacing those in their 60s at key government posts; these functionaries retain a good institutional memory of the Soviet Union and its domestic and international policies. Their decision-making, therefore, is a blend of what they consider an inevitable trend away from rigid Soviet structures -- exemplified by the spread of liberal democratic and market economic ideals in the former Soviet sphere -- and their own memory and perhaps wish for the ideals of the Soviet Union.
This is embodied by the constant struggle at the top echelons of power between those keen on recreating a strong central and controlling role for Russia in the post-Soviet space, and those who seek to change Russia along principles that closely resemble Western values. While many critics and analysts consider the latter category all but done for, the fate of Russia can yet be shaped by those who will begin to ascend in power within five or six years.
The younger generation has much in common with other youth around the world now in their early 20s. In North America, Western and Eastern Europe, in China, India and other countries of Southeast Asia, this new generation has begun to mature in the age of the Internet, wider access and familiarity with high-technology exemplified by computer and personal electronics, the spread of democratic principles and values, general familiarity with the market economy and its global presence and greater educational choices.
In Russia, this new generation wins international computer and IT competitions and takes one of the leading roles in the new high-tech economy. In China, according to a recent story in U.S. News and World Report, hundreds of millions of "Chuppies" -- Chinese young urban professionals -- are having a huge effect on global consumption and trade practices. In India, this young, English-speaking population has forged one of the most powerful high-tech economies in the world. In the United States, this new generation has helped build the Internet and today's high-tech industry, while living with the prevalence of democratic, capitalist, market-oriented ideals over command-economies and closed political regimes.
That is why Putin concentrated on specific pillars that he hopes will underpin the rise and maturity of Russia in the next several decades: the family and the military. While lamenting the negative population growth trends in the country, he offered financial incentives to families to have more than one child. Young families where both spouses are in their early 20s is commonplace in the Russian Federation, and many reasons they choose to have only one child -- or no child at all -- are financial and economic. This young generation -- the future of Russia if all trends prevalent today continue for the next several decades -- is only now maturing when it comes to various opportunities that have opened up to them since 1991. In the next five years, this generation will begin to reap the benefits -- or pitfalls -- of recent economic and social policies put in action by Putin, and will become more confident in their own economic, social and political standing.
Likewise, in the next five years the Russian military will begin to draft young men who have no connection or memory of Soviet military practices. Much of the current hazing and deadly abuse in the Russian military ranks is leftover from the Soviet days, when, in the 1970s, the military began to disintegrate and break down from within together with the rest of the country. Today's men drafted into the army are commanded and administered by those with full memory of Soviet military practices.
While many of these leaders will still be in power around 2010-2011, the military will have to adapt and change to the next generation of men who grew up in an era of greater choice, opportunity (however limited) and a renewed sense of personal respect. These young men will also have grown up in an era when no overriding political ideology guided every aspect of life, including military service. Because no such ideology exists, Russian military planners will have to switch to a professional military consisting of people guided by pragmatic choices and the sense of individual empowerment. This is the general sense of the U.S. military that Russians are trying to emulate, and Putin is keenly aware that a strong professional military not ruled by a rigid political philosophy is key to his state's future successes in the international arena.
Examples of Maturity of New States and New State Ideals
The general rule of 20 years allocated for a state's maturity is just one of the time periods that can be traced throughout history. Some states mature faster and others slower. Russia's own history is replete with such examples. The most notable one is the accession of the young energetic, Western-oriented Czar Peter the Great to the Russian throne in the late 1680s. He used physical force and intimidation -- as well as persuasion -- to turn his country from a sleeping giant into a major world power. The introduction of Western ideas of economy, military and statehood -- combined with the maturing of the generation of Russians capable of implementing these ideals -- resulted in Russian military victories over major powers of the day and the emergence in the 1700s of the Russian Empire that would last three centuries as one of the world's most preeminent powers.
Likewise, in 1917, following the revolution, Russia was in the midst of political, military and economic turmoil, soon to disintegrate into the five-year-long civil war. By the late 1930s, however, on the eve of the Second World War, the weak Russian Empire morphed into the Soviet Union, a major world power. By that time, an entire generation grew up with the ideals and beliefs of communism and socialism, and was implanting these ideals across the country.
By the same token, in the Russian Empire of the 1890s, new concepts and principles of Marxism, revolution and social change took hold among its young generation of students and the middle class. Within 20 years, this generation matured enough to implement these principles and to overthrow the Czarist regime, setting in motion a chain of events that culminated in the 1917 revolution and the subsequent disintegration of the country. In the mid 1970s, the ideals of human rights, social justice and personal freedom began to permeate the Soviet population following the signing of the Helsinki Declaration. These ideas brewed in secret among young academics, politicians, artists and writers, and by the early 1990s they had sufficient strength and numbers to facilitate the break-up of the Soviet Union.
Other powers also took around 20 years to reach a point where they could be considered mature powers. In 1871, the German Empire staked its claim to European greatness by unifying different German principalities and militarily humbling France, a preeminent power of the day. By the 1890s, it became clear that Germany was a major global contender, throwing a major challenge to Great Britain, the world's remaining superpower.
By the same token, a humbled Germany of 1918 was transformed into a superpower capable of taking on the world in 1939, as it became Nazi Germany with its powerful and disciplined military and economy. Communist China started off on the path of major economic change in 1979. By the year 2000, China was enjoying unprecedented economic growth, and today is considered the next great power and even a possible challenge to the United States. India started off on its reform path in the mid to late 1980s, and today it is emerging as another potential superpower and a major global economic powerhouse. Those in power in the 1970s and 1980s led China and India on the path toward economic and social change, so that today a new generation of their fellow countrymen can enjoy the life of relative prosperity and opportunity.
Conclusion
Putin's speech to Russia is important because it was an appeal to the young and upcoming generation who has little or no memory of the Soviet Union. Russia is maturing as the new power not just in terms of economy -- for its economy is still relatively small when compared to many other developed and developing countries -- but as the state with a unique blend of Western economic/political principles and a distinctly Russian/post-Soviet approach to them. Soon, the young Russian generation will make the next step from the largely academic life to the professional one, and will become a vocal and powerful voice in Russia's economy, politics and society. Twenty years since the start of the changes that led to the demise of the Soviet Union, this new generation will attempt to forge a new identity and direction for the Russian Federation.
Report Drafted By:
Alex Norman
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